{"id":1200,"date":"2023-09-26T16:51:27","date_gmt":"2023-09-26T14:51:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bednarmilan.cz\/?page_id=1200"},"modified":"2023-09-26T22:37:09","modified_gmt":"2023-09-26T20:37:09","slug":"inflace-navrat-k-normalu","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/bednarmilan.cz\/en\/inflace-navrat-k-normalu\/","title":{"rendered":"Articles on current events (Czech language)"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><div data-vc-full-width=\"true\" data-vc-full-width-init=\"false\" data-vc-stretch-content=\"true\" class=\"vc_row wpb_row vc_row-fluid vc_custom_1695738801438 vc_row-o-full-height vc_row-o-columns-stretch vc_row-o-equal-height vc_row-flex\"><div class=\"wpb_column vc_column_container vc_col-sm-12\"><div class=\"vc_column-inner\"><div class=\"wpb_wrapper\">\n\t<div class=\"wpb_text_column wpb_content_element\" >\n\t\t<div class=\"wpb_wrapper\">\n\t\t\t<h2><strong>\u010cek\u00e1 n\u00e1s rychl\u00fd p\u00e1d inflace a budeme se m\u00edt zase dob\u0159e?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>V \u010desk\u00e9m ve\u0159ejn\u00e9m prostoru jsme se v\u00a0ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 dob\u011b mohli setkat s\u00a0my\u0161lenkou, \u017ee n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1 rychl\u00fd p\u00e1d inflace a dojde k\u00a0postupn\u00e9mu vzestupu \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky. Tento rychl\u00fd p\u00e1d inflace v\u0161ak velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebude znamenat n\u00e1vrat na p\u016fvodn\u00ed velmi n\u00edzk\u00e9 hodnoty. Naproti tomu ani vzestup \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky bohu\u017eel nebude znamenat, \u017ee se najednou budeme m\u00edt mnohem l\u00e9pe, tedy stejn\u011b jako p\u0159ed rokem 2020.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed data \u010cesk\u00e9ho statistick\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee meziro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj inflace za kv\u011bten tohoto roku \u010dinil 11,1 %. Jedn\u00e1 se o mnohem ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0rekordn\u00edmi 18 % v\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed minul\u00e9ho roku, av\u0161ak inflace je st\u00e1le velmi vysok\u00e1. Od roku 2020 se cenov\u00e1 hladina zv\u00fd\u0161ila v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru o t\u0159etinu, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eby podra\u017eily o t\u0159etinu. U naprost\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161iny zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb tak\u00e9 nelze o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee se vr\u00e1t\u00edme na p\u016fvodn\u00ed ceny. Vysok\u00e1 cenov\u00e1 hladina tu s\u00a0n\u00e1mi ji\u017e bude. V\u00a0podstat\u011b se jedn\u00e1 o da\u0148 za nerovnov\u00e1\u017en\u00fd v\u00fdvoj na\u0161\u00ed ekonomiky, kter\u00fd byl v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech opravdu v\u00fdznamn\u00fd.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Dal\u0161\u00edm d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm aspektem je v\u00fdvoj mezd a plat\u016f. V\u00a0souvislosti s\u00a0v\u00fdvojem inflace ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b p\u0159\u00edpad\u016f nedo\u0161lo k\u00a0adekv\u00e1tn\u00ed zm\u011bn\u011b mezd a plat\u016f. Pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 re\u00e1ln\u00e1 mzda za minul\u00fd rok klesla o 8,5 % a v roce 2023 v\u00a0tom bohu\u017eel zat\u00edm pokra\u010duje. V\u00a0prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edho roku byl zaznamen\u00e1n dal\u0161\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u00ed pokles o 6,7 %, p\u0159esto\u017ee m\u00e1me n\u00edzkou srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladnu. Pokud pr\u016fm\u011brnou mzdu o\u010dist\u00edme o inflaci a p\u0159evedeme ji na st\u00e1l\u00e9 ceny, tak srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s rokem 2020 je p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b o 20 % ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed. \u010cesk\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti tedy v pr\u016fm\u011bru p\u0159i\u0161ly o 20 % sv\u00fdch re\u00e1ln\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f ve form\u011b mezd a plat\u016f. Tato informace zat\u00edm nezazn\u011bla dostate\u010dn\u011b siln\u011b. Nelze se tedy divit rekordn\u00edmu propadu spot\u0159eby dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, kter\u00e1 ji\u017e \u0161est \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed v\u00a0\u0159ad\u011b kles\u00e1. Podle \u010cesk\u00e9ho statistick\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu se jedn\u00e1 o nejdel\u0161\u00ed sekvenci pokles\u016f od po\u010d\u00e1tku vykazov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto ukazatele v\u00a0roce 1996.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Do toho se dnes p\u0159id\u00e1vaj\u00ed n\u00e1zory, \u017ee inflace bude velmi prudce klesat. Ano, opravdu pozorujeme dezinfla\u010dn\u00ed proces. Av\u0161ak mus\u00edme si uv\u011bdomit, \u017ee d\u016fvodem, pro\u010d inflace v\u00a0posledn\u00ed dob\u011b rapidn\u011b kles\u00e1, je velk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1klady z\u00a0minul\u00e9ho roku. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, dynamika inflace byla p\u0159ed rokem tak vysok\u00e1, \u017ee je nep\u0159edstaviteln\u00e9 ji dnes dorovnat. Takov\u00fd proces by znamenal rozvrat na\u0161\u00ed dnes ji\u017e tak negativn\u011b zasa\u017een\u00e9 ekonomiky. To tedy rozhodn\u011b neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee je d\u016fvod slavit. Zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd dezinfla\u010dn\u00ed proces se velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nezastav\u00ed na velmi n\u00edzk\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch. \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce s\u00a0inflac\u00ed ve v\u00fd\u0161i 2,1 % procenta. Tato progn\u00f3za se v\u0161ak jako realistick\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nejev\u00ed. \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka a jej\u00ed analytick\u00fd t\u00fdm je do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry sv\u00e1z\u00e1n sv\u00fdm modelov\u00fdm apar\u00e1tem a form\u00e1ln\u00edm z\u00e1vazkem.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Existuje n\u011bkolik argument\u016f, kter\u00e9 podporuj\u00ed strm\u00fd p\u00e1d inflace. Jsou mezi nimi klesaj\u00edc\u00ed ceny potravin, energi\u00ed, materi\u00e1l\u016f, siln\u00e1 koruna, \u010di omezen\u00e1 koup\u011bschopnost \u010desk\u00fdch dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed vypl\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00a0poklesu re\u00e1ln\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f. Na stran\u011b druh\u00e9 v\u0161ak p\u0159evl\u00e1daj\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed tlaky z\u00a0p\u0159eh\u0159\u00e1t\u00e9ho trhu pr\u00e1ce, kde po\u010det voln\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst st\u00e1le p\u0159evy\u0161uje po\u010det uchaze\u010d\u016f o zam\u011bstn\u00e1n\u00ed, d\u00e1le nejistoty spojen\u00e9 s\u00a0v\u00e1lkou na Ukrajin\u011b a kurzem koruny, vysok\u00e9 n\u00e1klady zelen\u00e9 transformace \u010di regulace ekonomiky a zejm\u00e9na siln\u011b proinfla\u010dn\u00ed dopady deficitn\u00edho st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru by k\u00a0v\u00fdznamn\u00e9mu poklesu inflace do n\u00edzk\u00fdch hodnot do\u0161lo v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b znateln\u011b lep\u0161\u00edho hospoda\u0159en\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, respektive salda st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu, a tak\u00e9 v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b dal\u0161\u00edho poklesu re\u00e1ln\u00fdch mezd. Tento pokles by v\u0161ak byl nutn\u011b spojen s hor\u0161\u00ed situac\u00ed \u010desk\u00fdch podnik\u016f, mohlo by doj\u00edt ke znateln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu n\u00e1r\u016fstu nezam\u011bstnanosti a tak\u00e9 bychom vyk\u00e1zali ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho produktu. Takov\u00e1 situace by pro \u010deskou ekonomiku a jej\u00ed ob\u010dany p\u0159\u00ednosn\u00e1 nebyla.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Pova\u017euji za naprosto nutn\u00e9 uv\u00e1d\u011bt tyto v\u011bci na pravou m\u00edru. Nesm\u00edme se nechat uchl\u00e1cholit nepoctiv\u00fdmi anal\u00fdzami \u010di politick\u00fdmi deklaracemi. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee dojde k\u00a0poklesu inflace, tak se bohu\u017eel k\u00a0norm\u00e1lu a prosperit\u011b jen tak rychle nevr\u00e1t\u00edme. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 inflace je d\u016fsledkem kumulace \u0159ady probl\u00e9m\u016f a s\u00a0jej\u00edmi n\u00e1sledky se budeme vyrovn\u00e1vat del\u0161\u00ed dobu. Jedn\u00e1 se o dopady nep\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fdch vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch podm\u00ednek a zejm\u00e9na nerozumn\u00e9ho hospoda\u0159en\u00ed a nespr\u00e1vn\u00fdch politik na\u0161ich vl\u00e1d. Tento proces bohu\u017eel zabere n\u011bkolik let.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Upraven\u00e1 verze textu byla publikov\u00e1na v den\u00edku Lidov\u00e9 noviny pod n\u00e1zvem \u201eBudeme se m\u00edt zase dob\u0159e\u201c, dne 7. \u010dervence 2023.<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">\n\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vc_row-full-width vc_clearfix\"><\/div><\/section>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"\u010cek\u00e1 n\u00e1s rychl\u00fd p\u00e1d inflace a budeme se m\u00edt zase dob\u0159e? &nbsp; V \u010desk\u00e9m ve\u0159ejn\u00e9m [...]","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1200","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u010cl\u00e1nky k aktu\u00e1ln\u00edmu d\u011bn\u00ed - doc. Ing. Milan Bedn\u00e1\u0159, Ph.D.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bednarmilan.cz\/en\/inflace-navrat-k-normalu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u010cl\u00e1nky k aktu\u00e1ln\u00edmu d\u011bn\u00ed - doc. Ing. Milan Bedn\u00e1\u0159, Ph.D.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/bednarmilan.cz\/en\/inflace-navrat-k-normalu\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"doc. Ing. 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