{"id":1233,"date":"2023-11-03T10:32:45","date_gmt":"2023-11-03T09:32:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bednarmilan.cz\/?page_id=1233"},"modified":"2023-11-03T10:32:45","modified_gmt":"2023-11-03T09:32:45","slug":"inflace-2024","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/bednarmilan.cz\/en\/inflace-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Articles on current events (Czech language)"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><div data-vc-full-width=\"true\" data-vc-full-width-init=\"false\" data-vc-stretch-content=\"true\" class=\"vc_row wpb_row vc_row-fluid vc_custom_1695738801438 vc_row-o-full-height vc_row-o-columns-stretch vc_row-o-equal-height vc_row-flex\"><div class=\"wpb_column vc_column_container vc_col-sm-12\"><div class=\"vc_column-inner\"><div class=\"wpb_wrapper\">\n\t<div class=\"wpb_text_column wpb_content_element\" >\n\t\t<div class=\"wpb_wrapper\">\n\t\t\t<h2><strong>Dvouprocentn\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed c\u00edl v roce 2024 \u2013 realita, nebo zbo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Mnoho koment\u00e1tor\u016f a analytik\u016f napjat\u011b vyhl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok, ve kter\u00e9m bychom dle \u0159ady odhad\u016f m\u011bli doc\u00edlit infla\u010dn\u00edho c\u00edle dvou procent. Situace v\u0161ak tak jednoduch\u00e1 nen\u00ed, existuje \u0159ada rizik a je nezodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 tvrdit, \u017ee infla\u010dn\u00ed c\u00edl je na dosah. Nav\u00edc toto \u010d\u00edslo zase tolik znamenat nebude. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce \u010desk\u00e1 ekonomika znateln\u011bji rostla, tak n\u00e1s m\u00edrn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 m\u00edra inflace tolik nepo\u0161kod\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00a0z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed dos\u00e1hla meziro\u010dn\u00ed zm\u011bna spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen hodnoty 6,9 %, co\u017e p\u0159ekvapilo v\u011bt\u0161inu ekonom\u016f v\u010detn\u011b \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky. M\u00e9dii tato zpr\u00e1va pro\u0161la jako jedna z\u00a0m\u00e1la opravdu pozitivn\u00edch. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b, ekonomov\u00e9 v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee samotn\u00e9 toto \u010d\u00edslo je pro vyvozen\u00ed siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edch z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f nedosta\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Je velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee infla\u010dn\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla se za posledn\u00ed 3 m\u011bs\u00edce tohoto roku zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed na \u00farove\u0148 n\u011bkde kolem 7-9 procent a pot\u00e9 prudce klesnou. Za t\u011bmito pohyby nemus\u00edme hledat \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 slo\u017eit\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy, nebo\u0165 prom\u00edtnut\u00ed \u00fasporn\u00e9ho tarifu \u010cesk\u00fdm statistick\u00fdm \u00fa\u0159adem v minul\u00e9m roce v kombinaci s pokleslou infla\u010dn\u00ed dynamikou budou hlavn\u00edmi tahouny zm\u011bn. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, muselo by se st\u00e1t n\u011bco opravdu v\u00fdjime\u010dn\u00e9ho, siln\u00e9ho a ne\u010dekan\u00e9ho, aby inflace v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce prudce nepoklesla.<\/p>\n<p>M\u011bli bychom v\u0161ak rozli\u0161it meziro\u010dn\u00ed a mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed data. Zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 hodnoty zm\u011bn spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen, kter\u00e9 c\u00edluje \u010cNB, se t\u00fdkaj\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u00edch hodnot \u2013 tedy zm\u011bny za posledn\u00edch 12 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. Tyto hodnoty jsou vyhlazen\u00e9, av\u0161ak i zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00e9. Pokud by n\u00e1s zaj\u00edmalo, co se d\u011bje pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f, tak srovnateln\u00e9 m\u011b\u0159\u00edtko inflace s\u00a0projekc\u00ed na dal\u0161\u00ed rok se nejsp\u00ed\u0161e nach\u00e1z\u00ed n\u011bkde mezi 3-5 %, a\u010dkoliv tyto odhady jsou velmi problematick\u00e9. Situace se tedy postupn\u011b zlep\u0161ila. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b je naprosto z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee dramatick\u00e9 poklesy meziro\u010dn\u00ed inflace se rychle vy\u010derpaj\u00ed, av\u0161ak ne nutn\u011b u hodnoty dvou procent. Existuje mnoho rizik, \u017ee se na del\u0161\u00ed dobu zastav\u00edme u n\u011bco vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch hodnot, pr\u00e1v\u011b kolem 3-5 %. Tomu odpov\u00edd\u00e1 i progn\u00f3za Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9 fondu \u010di o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed \u0159ady podnikatel\u016f a mana\u017eer\u016f.<\/p>\n<p>Z\u00a0historie v\u00edme, \u017ee infla\u010dn\u00ed epizody obvykle trvaj\u00ed n\u011bkolik let a nen\u00ed jednoduch\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161enou m\u00edru inflace srazit. Pokud se pod\u00edv\u00e1me do USA, kter\u00e9 jsou ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0Evropou o n\u011bco nap\u0159ed, tak vid\u00edme, \u017ee dezinfla\u010dn\u00ed proces se zaseknul a m\u00edra inflace postupn\u011b vzrostla ze 3 procent na nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edch 3,7 procent. P\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 to v\u0161eobecn\u011b zn\u00e1mou pou\u010dku, \u017ee posledn\u00edch p\u00e1r krok\u016f k c\u00edli je nejt\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00edch.<\/p>\n<p>V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky nyn\u00ed existuje velk\u00e1 \u0159ada rizik a proinfla\u010dn\u00edch faktor\u016f. M\u016f\u017eeme pozorovat z\u00e1drhely v\u00a0dezinfla\u010dn\u00edm procesu nap\u0159\u00edklad u slu\u017eeb, m\u00e1me op\u011bt relativn\u011b slab\u00fd kurz koruny, zv\u00fd\u0161ily se ceny ropy a m\u00e1me st\u00e1le p\u0159eh\u0159\u00e1t\u00fd trh pr\u00e1ce. Rovn\u011b\u017e je vhodn\u00e9 rozebrat takzvan\u00e1 infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Tento faktor lze jen velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b odhadovat, a i proto je p\u0159edm\u011btem mnoha spekulac\u00ed. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee si lid\u00e9 zvyknou na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflaci, tak s\u00a0n\u00ed do budoucna po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed, co\u017e se nutn\u011b prom\u00edtne do cen v\u00a0cel\u00e9 ekonomice, i kdyby ostatn\u00ed faktory byly nanejv\u00fd\u0161 p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00e9. V\u00a0\u010cesk\u00e9 republice zat\u00edm nikdo neposkytl podrobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdzu t\u011bchto o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. J\u00e1 v\u0161ak pova\u017euji za t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 vylou\u010den\u00e9, \u017ee zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e1 inflace, jakou jsme za\u017eili a za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1me, se neprom\u00edtla do o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ob\u010dan\u016f a podnik\u016f.<\/p>\n<p>Tato o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed jsou mimo jin\u00e9 vid\u011bt i na vl\u00e1dn\u00ed politice ve vztahu ke st\u00e1tn\u00edmu rozpo\u010dtu. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee se ob\u00e1v\u00e1me inflace, tak se zpravidla zav\u00e1d\u00ed tzv. indexace. Jedn\u00e1 se o stejn\u00fd princip jako u valorizace d\u016fchod\u016f, kdy do smluv d\u00e1me dolo\u017eku, \u017ee dan\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1stka se bude automaticky zvy\u0161ovat o inflaci. U st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu vid\u00edme, \u017ee se vl\u00e1da nov\u011b zav\u00e1zala d\u00e1t 130 % pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 mzdy u\u010ditel\u016fm na ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch stupn\u00edch, valorizovat platby za st\u00e1tn\u00ed poji\u0161t\u011bnce a vynalo\u017eit 2 % HDP na oblast obrany. V\u0161echna zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed jsou ve sv\u00e9 podstat\u011b indexac\u00ed. I samotn\u00ed politikov\u00e9 v\u00a0r\u00e1mci vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, a\u0165 u\u017e v\u011bdom\u011b \u010di nev\u011bdom\u011b, tedy zakomponovali inflaci do sv\u00fdch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a argument\u016f. Do budoucna m\u016f\u017eeme po\u010d\u00edtat s\u00a0vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed dynamikou rovn\u011b\u017e v\u00a0d\u016fsledku deficitn\u00edho st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu, zelen\u00e9 politiky Evropsk\u00e9 unie a st\u00e1rnut\u00ed populace.<\/p>\n<p>Vzhledem k\u00a0p\u0159edlo\u017een\u00fdm argument\u016fm si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee je nezodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 b\u00fdt p\u0159ehnan\u00fdm optimistou. Nam\u00edsto toho bychom m\u011bli na situaci nahl\u00ed\u017eet realisticky. Nikoho by nem\u011blo p\u0159ekvapovat, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i a vl\u00e1dn\u00ed politikov\u00e9 jsou sp\u00ed\u0161e optimisty, a to jednodu\u0161e proto, \u017ee je to v\u00a0jejich z\u00e1jmu. Ve\u0159ejnost by v\u0161ak m\u011bla v\u011bd\u011bt, \u017ee ony dv\u011b procenta nejsou \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 magick\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1s okam\u017eit\u011b dostane z\u00a0probl\u00e9m\u016f. Bude je\u0161t\u011b n\u011bjakou dobu trvat, ne\u017e se re\u00e1ln\u00e9 mzdy dostanou na \u00farovn\u011b p\u0159ed t\u0159emi lety.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Upraven\u00e1 verze textu byla publikov\u00e1na v den\u00edku Lidov\u00e9 noviny pod n\u00e1zvem \u201eP\u0159ed c\u00edlem je to nejt\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed\u201c, dne 2. listopadu 2023.<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">\n\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vc_row-full-width vc_clearfix\"><\/div><\/section>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Dvouprocentn\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed c\u00edl v roce 2024 \u2013 realita, nebo zbo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed? &nbsp; Mnoho koment\u00e1tor\u016f a [...]","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1233","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u010cl\u00e1nky k aktu\u00e1ln\u00edmu d\u011bn\u00ed - doc. Ing. Milan Bedn\u00e1\u0159, Ph.D.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bednarmilan.cz\/en\/inflace-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u010cl\u00e1nky k aktu\u00e1ln\u00edmu d\u011bn\u00ed - doc. Ing. Milan Bedn\u00e1\u0159, Ph.D.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/bednarmilan.cz\/en\/inflace-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"doc. Ing. 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