{"id":1285,"date":"2023-12-29T16:34:48","date_gmt":"2023-12-29T15:34:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bednarmilan.cz\/?page_id=1285"},"modified":"2023-12-29T16:40:58","modified_gmt":"2023-12-29T15:40:58","slug":"vyhled-2024","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/bednarmilan.cz\/en\/vyhled-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Articles on current events (Czech language)"},"content":{"rendered":"<section class=\"wpb-content-wrapper\"><div data-vc-full-width=\"true\" data-vc-full-width-init=\"false\" data-vc-stretch-content=\"true\" class=\"vc_row wpb_row vc_row-fluid vc_custom_1695738801438 vc_row-o-full-height vc_row-o-columns-stretch vc_row-o-equal-height vc_row-flex\"><div class=\"wpb_column vc_column_container vc_col-sm-12\"><div class=\"vc_column-inner\"><div class=\"wpb_wrapper\">\n\t<div class=\"wpb_text_column wpb_content_element\" >\n\t\t<div class=\"wpb_wrapper\">\n\t\t\t<h2><strong>Budeme se m\u00edt p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok l\u00e9pe? S nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed ano, na oslavu to ale nebude.<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Mnoho lid\u00ed v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b zaj\u00edm\u00e1, jak se bude da\u0159it \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomice a pota\u017emo jejich vlastn\u00edm pen\u011b\u017eenk\u00e1m v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm roce. Odpov\u011b\u010f na tuto ot\u00e1zku nen\u00ed jednoduch\u00e1, proto\u017ee ka\u017ed\u00e1 slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f je nutn\u011b spojen\u00e1 s \u0159adou rizik a nejistot. V p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce by se v\u0161ak \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomice m\u011blo da\u0159it v pr\u016fm\u011bru l\u00e9pe, ne\u017e tomu bylo v posledn\u00edch dvan\u00e1cti m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch. P\u0159esto nen\u00ed d\u016fvod k p\u0159ehnan\u00e9mu optimismu.<\/p>\n<p>Dne\u0161n\u00ed situaci bychom mohli charakterizovat jako obdob\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 stagnace v prost\u0159ed\u00ed se zv\u00fd\u0161enou inflac\u00ed. Pro mnoho \u010desk\u00fdch ob\u010dan\u016f to znamenalo pokles re\u00e1ln\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f, proto\u017ee navy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed mezd v cel\u00e9 \u0159ad\u011b odv\u011btv\u00ed nep\u0159ev\u00fd\u0161ilo vysokou inflaci. \u010ce\u0161i si tak mohli dovolit kupovat za sv\u00e9 v\u00fdplaty st\u00e1le m\u00e9n\u011b zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb. Do toho se na n\u00e1s valily negativn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy ze v\u0161ech sm\u011br\u016f. A\u0165 u\u017e to byly zpr\u00e1vy z Ukrajiny \u010di p\u0159\u00edmo od vl\u00e1dn\u00edch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f ohledn\u011b takzvan\u00e9ho konsolida\u010dn\u00edho bal\u00ed\u010dku a zm\u011bn v d\u016fchodov\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu. Nelze se tedy divit, \u017ee \u010desk\u00e9 dom\u00e1cnosti za\u010daly pom\u011brn\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u011b \u0161et\u0159it. \u0160patn\u00e1 n\u00e1lada byla jednou z v\u00fdznamn\u00fdch charakteristik roku 2023. To nepom\u00e1halo ekonomick\u00e9mu r\u016fstu, spot\u0159eb\u011b, investic\u00edm, ani mzdov\u00fdm vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm.<\/p>\n<p>A\u010dkoliv je velmi o\u0161emetn\u00e9 a problematick\u00e9 p\u0159edv\u00eddat budoucnost, pokus\u00edm se nast\u00ednit, jak by za norm\u00e1ln\u00ed situace mohly vypadat jej\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed obrysy. Nejlep\u0161\u00edm op\u011brn\u00fdm bodem je cyklick\u00e9 chov\u00e1n\u00ed ekonomiky a obyvatel. Obdob\u00ed poklesu st\u0159\u00eddaj\u00ed obdob\u00ed r\u016fstu. S\u00a0t\u00edmto ve sv\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 i \u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka.<\/p>\n<p>Mysl\u00edm si, \u017ee je pom\u011brn\u011b z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok m\u016f\u017eeme po\u010d\u00edtat s\u00a0v\u00fdznamn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed hlavn\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbou \u010cNB. Ta by na ke konci p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku mohla klesnout a\u017e n\u011bkam ke 3-4 procent\u016fm. To bude v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 \u00faleva ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0dne\u0161n\u00edmi 6,75 procenty po prosincov\u00e9m prvn\u00edm sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed za del\u0161\u00ed dobu. T\u00edmto zp\u016fsobem dojde ke \u201ezlevn\u011bn\u00ed\u201c hypot\u00e9k a nov\u00fdch firemn\u00edch investic. V\u00fdvoj mezd by rovn\u011b\u017e m\u011bl p\u0159ekonat inflaci. Ta by mohla dos\u00e1hnout hodnoty n\u011bkde mezi 3-5 procenty, co\u017e je v\u00fdznamn\u00fd rozd\u00edl oproti leto\u0161n\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 11procentn\u00ed inflaci. Lid\u00e9 nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d odv\u011btv\u00edmi by si po del\u0161\u00ed dob\u011b m\u011bli b\u00fdt schopni po\u0159\u00eddit op\u011bt v\u00edce zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb za sv\u00e9 v\u00fdplaty. Postaven\u00ed mnoha zam\u011bstnanc\u016f pracuj\u00edc\u00edch v\u00a0soukrom\u00e9m sektoru v\u0161ak bude mnohem p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se st\u00e1tn\u00edmi zam\u011bstnanci a ostatn\u00edmi osobami pracuj\u00edc\u00edmi ve ve\u0159ejn\u00e9m sektoru. Dan\u00e9 faktory by tedy mohly p\u0159isp\u011bt k\u00a0ur\u010dit\u00e9mu zlep\u0161en\u00ed spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9ho sentimentu a celkov\u00e9 n\u00e1lady ve spole\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n<p>Nicm\u00e9n\u011b, nevhodn\u00e1 rozpo\u010dtov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed a dodate\u010dn\u00e9 regulace budou op\u011bt p\u016fsobit protich\u016fdn\u011b. V\u00fdvoj v\u00a0zahrani\u010d\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0N\u011bmecku, je rovn\u011b\u017e velmi nejist\u00fd. Ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst tedy m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt daleko ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e \u0159ada ekonom\u016f o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1. Ji\u017e b\u011bhem tohoto roku doch\u00e1zelo k\u00a0reviz\u00edm progn\u00f3z sm\u011brem dol\u016f, z p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b\u00a02-3 procent na 1-2 procenta. Proto si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee nen\u00ed d\u016fvod k\u00a0p\u0159ehnan\u00e9mu optimismu. Velmi re\u00e1ln\u011b hroz\u00ed, \u017ee se ze stagflace jen tak snadno nedostaneme. Situace je problematick\u00e1 zejm\u00e9na pro energeticky n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00e1 odv\u011btv\u00ed. Jedn\u00e1 se nap\u0159\u00edklad o chemick\u00fd pr\u016fmysl, hutnictv\u00ed, slev\u00e1renstv\u00ed, skl\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed sektory \u010di jejich \u010d\u00e1sti. V\u00a0d\u016fsledku nesmysln\u00e9 zelen\u00e9 politiky a neuv\u00e1\u017een\u00fdch krok\u016f na\u0161ich vl\u00e1d hroz\u00ed v\u00a0cel\u00e9 Evropsk\u00e9 unii z\u00e1nik t\u011bchto tradi\u010dn\u00edch odv\u011btv\u00ed. V\u00a0t\u011bchto sektorech bohu\u017eel z\u0159ejm\u011b dojde k\u00a0n\u00e1r\u016fstu nezam\u011bstnanosti. Mezi dal\u0161\u00ed rizika lze za\u0159adit v\u00fdvoj v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b, dopady takzvan\u00e9ho konsolida\u010dn\u00edho bal\u00ed\u010dku, vysoce deficitn\u00ed a proinfla\u010dn\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok, nestabiln\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a v\u00fdvoj cen energi\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Shrnuto a podtr\u017eeno, situace v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce by skute\u010dn\u011b mohla b\u00fdt p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v roce leto\u0161n\u00edm. P\u0159esto nebude d\u016fvod k oslav\u00e1m. Ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt velmi slab\u00fd. Nav\u00edc, v\u00fdvoj bude zna\u010dn\u011b odli\u0161n\u00fd pro r\u016fzn\u00e9 skupiny dom\u00e1cnosti a zam\u011bstnanc\u016f. Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed rozd\u00edly bude mo\u017en\u00e9 nal\u00e9zt mezi soukrom\u00fdm sektorem a ve\u0159ejn\u00fdm sektorem. D\u00e1le mezi relativn\u011b bohat\u00fdmi a chud\u0161\u00edmi dom\u00e1cnostmi. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu se budou chud\u0161\u00ed dom\u00e1cnosti dost\u00e1vat z re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho poklesu jejich p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f mnohem del\u0161\u00ed dobu. To je koneckonc\u016f tak\u00e9 jedn\u00edm z d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f. P\u0159esto\u017ee by se ekonomice m\u011blo da\u0159it o n\u011bco l\u00e9pe, n\u00e1vrat zp\u011bt bude trvat del\u0161\u00ed dobu. \u010cesk\u00e9 ekonomice z dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00edho hlediska hroz\u00ed m\u00edrn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed verze stagflace. Abychom j\u00ed p\u0159ede\u0161li, m\u011blo by doj\u00edt k obratu v hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 politice. Probl\u00e9my by se m\u011bly \u0159e\u0161it syst\u00e9mov\u011b. Marketingov\u00e9 proklamace a \u00fapravy d\u00edl\u010d\u00edch parametr\u016f nejsou \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em>Upraven\u00e1 verze textu byla publikov\u00e1na v den\u00edku Lidov\u00e9 noviny pod n\u00e1zvem \u201eBudeme se m\u00edt p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok l\u00e9pe?\u201c, dne 28. prosince 2023. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Pozn\u00e1mka: v ti\u0161t\u011bn\u00e9 verzi byl bez souhlasu autora p\u0159id\u00e1n nadpis \u201eStagflace nam\u00edchan\u00e1 s inflac\u00ed\u201c, kter\u00fd je terminologicky nespr\u00e1vn\u00fd.<\/em><\/p>\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">\n\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"vc_row-full-width vc_clearfix\"><\/div><\/section>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Budeme se m\u00edt p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok l\u00e9pe? S nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed ano, na oslavu to ale nebude. [...]","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_exactmetrics_skip_tracking":false,"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-1285","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u010cl\u00e1nky k aktu\u00e1ln\u00edmu d\u011bn\u00ed - doc. Ing. Milan Bedn\u00e1\u0159, Ph.D.<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/bednarmilan.cz\/en\/vyhled-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u010cl\u00e1nky k aktu\u00e1ln\u00edmu d\u011bn\u00ed - doc. Ing. Milan Bedn\u00e1\u0159, Ph.D.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/bednarmilan.cz\/en\/vyhled-2024\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"doc. Ing. 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